As this day marks the third Democracy Day since Dr. Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as the fifth democratic President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, it is pertinent to evaluate the 2010 Power Roadmap and allied promises the administration has made to determine how much of a benefit the electorates are reaping from the power sector.
Although the President on assuming office declared a full stance on improving power generation, transmission and distribution, Nigeria is still struggling with 3,800megawatt
s
of electricity distributed among the teeming 177 million population.
Examining the situation, many have expressed doubts over the attainment of a total transformation in the power sector. However, this is not to say the administration has not done credibly well in achieving record-breaking milestones in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).
President Jonathan inaugurated the Roadmap for Power Sector Reforms on 26th August, 2010 in Lagos where he reiterated his ‘power’ promises saying, “By God’s grace, by December 2012, Nigeria will not only celebrate one day of uninterrupted electricity supply, but we would celebrate one week, one month and so on of uninterrupted electricity supply.”
More so, he had at his numerous campaign tours to various states across the geopolitical zones promised a significantly improved power supply before the end of the 2011 election year through government’s construction of 10 National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) gas-fired plants.
Records show that a summary of President Jonathan’s manifesto on the power sector declared before the April 19, 2011 presidential elections reflected tremendous advancement in the sector within the shortest period.
The Roadmap Promise
Based on the 2010 Power Roadmap and privatisation plans, he promised to provide stable power supply by the year 2015 so that small and medium scale industries can thrive again; ensure that Nigerians do not use generators more than two times in a week; explore the coal deposits in Benue and Kogi states for improved power supply; construct more dams to build more hydro-power stations; reduce the importation of generators by at least 90percent in the ensuing four years; raise power generation to about 4,747megawatts by December 2011; and to end epileptic power supply in the country just as fuel queues at petrol stations were ended.
However as the last lap of the four year term grinds to a halt in about 12 months from now, Nigerians are raising more questions, seeking for myriads of answers as to whether the umpteen mouth-watering promises have been fulfilled or most of them were mere baits to catch the already weary masses into accepting the government at the polls.
Nation’s electricity status
First of the promise was to deliver stable, constant supply of electricity to Nigerians. Investigations however revealed that government kindled its effort to meet the pledge with a resultant increase in power capacity from the previous 3600mw. Power capacity rose to about 4,200mw reportedly produced from the various Generation companies (Gencos) till December, 2011 but was below the promise of 4,747mw earlier made.
Former Minster of Power, Prof. Barth Nnaji, in February 2012 said the nation’s power stood at an increasing capacity of 4,400megawatts, adding that power generation had increased by more than 40 percent since President Jonathan was elected in May, 2011.
However, the increase barely translated into sustainable constant electricity supply as many places in the country witnessed protracted blackouts arising from incessant collapses of the country’s grid system. The Kano, Yola and Jos Electricity Distribution companies (Discos) continued to groan over what they have described as poor grid allocation which invariably hinders the constant supply of electricity to their service areas.
While conceiving the power privatization process early in 2013, the then Power Minister, Prof. Nnaji resigned amidst controversies just as power situation immediately worsened with supply dropping to 3,224.3mw but later increased to about 3,443mw in the second half of the year.
Statistics obtained in January 2013 from the National Control Centre (NCC) of transmission in Osogbo revealed that there were 39 and 42 system failures between 2009 and 2010 respectively, 19 system collapses in 2011 and 24 of such cases in 2012.
However the Minister of Power, Prof. Chinedu Nebo in June 2013 said, over 15 collapses were recorded last year, bringing it to a total of more than 139 transmission system collapses experienced within five years. Major reasons ascribed to the cases were overloading of the electricity grid, vandalism, and weak transmission towers, obsolete power infrastructure and a sharp decline of human capacity.
Success came for the administration when it finally completed the unbundling of the PHCN and then privatized 15 of its power utilities, as envisaged in the road map to provide constant power supply. The privatization exercise by November 1st, 2013 saw to the handover of four electricity generation companies and 10 distribution companies to private investors while the transmission network was left in the hands of government.
To allay the fears of the public who feared the public transmission sector may not be a match for the anticipated private-sector driven electricity industry, government contracted Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) of Canada in 2012 to help transform the transmission company under its unbundled name, Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).
All these are to ensure that power generation steeply rises to over 4,000mw and considerably impacting on the nation’s constant and stable power supply, but records on generation capacity generation obtained from the Ministry of Power in December 2013, months after the handover showed that electricity dropped by about 954mw.
Although it once stood at a significant 4,517mw in December 2012, it had dropped to a fluctuating 3,563mw by December 2013 even as the ministry attributed the drop to vandalism and the shortage of gas supply.
Not deterred, some electricity stakeholders are optimistic that generation may rise and hopefully engender the promises of constant and stable supply in the now private-led power sector. In corroboration, records available on the site of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) show that there are 57 licensed generation companies who could produce a total of 26,093mw of on-grid electricity when operationally and efficiently put to use.
The 26,000mw generating plants comprise the seven privatised government generation assets, the yet-to-be privatized 10 National Integrated Power Projects (NIPPs), and two generating plants under the Bureau of Public Enterprise (BPE). Others are primarily the assets of various Independent Power Plants (IPPs).
On the provision of stable power supply by 2015 to boost small and medium scale industries, a major indicator on that is the Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) initiated by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in 2008. The reviewed MYTO 2 became effective in June 2012, but with an attendant increase in electricity bills. The last major review before 2015 sets in wich would be effective by Sunday 1st June, has also recorded an increase which does not truly encourage a thriving industrial economy.
More so, Government leveraging on the growth of small and medium enterprises had lowered the cost of fixed charges for ‘D2 Customers’ under the SME category in 2013. Data available from NERC revealed that prior to the reduction, the D2 customers’ fixed charges range between N86, 956 to N139, 466 depending on the Distribution Company, but to encourage the development of local industries, the Commission reduced the fixed charge for the group to 25percent.
Early in January, President Jonathan further issued a directive to the new owners of the privatised power assets investors to ensure visible and significant improvement in power supply in the country by June this year with a target of 14 hours electricity for consumers who were already getting 12hours supply while major cities including Abuja and Lagos were to have up to 22 to 23hours daily supply; this is yet to be the case with barely 3,800mw in the nation’s grid even as June draws nearer.
President Jonathan also in his bid to provide electricity for rural areas adopted the solar lighting technology when he flagged off the Operation Light-up Rural Nigeria (ORLN) in Durumi village of Abuja earlier in January 2014.
The Minister of Power, Prof. Chinedu Nebo had said the community centre which houses a solar-kiosk and other lighting installations would facilitate job creation/business growth adding that they will be replicated in most communities across the country, shortly. This is still on the rack as it is yet to be replicated in other states of the federation.
As the ultimatum of June 2014 for significant power improvement approaches, consumers are anxiously waiting to experience in in the face of a rise in electricity tariff. Prof. Nebo had attributed earlier hitches to constant supply of electricity to sabotage and teething problems in the newly privatised industries, but that is well over six months and such cases ought to have improved.
Another significant power promise was that the administration will reduce the importation of generators at least 90 percent in the next four years; and ensure that Nigerians do not use generators more than two times in a week. Analysts have continued to argue on this point as no legislation has been passed to ban generator importation.
The Minister of Power Prof. Chinedu Nebo while addressing pressmen in December 2013 had said he has no generator plant installed at his Ministers’ Hills residence and the Ministry of Power to show an example in transforming the power sector.
He had expressed hopes that shortly, consumers will resort to being satisfied with power supply thereby drastically cutting down the use of generator sets which according to research has many negative consequences on the health conditions and wellbeing of individuals.
An official in the Ministry of Power who spoke in confidence said President Jonathan may likely not issue any ban on generator importation but would strive to ensure that power supply is gradually consistent and stable which at the end will dissuade generator importers after a drastic fall in their market demands.
But recent Daily Trust checks revealed that the use of power generating plants and their importation is on the increase due to poor conventional electricity supply which is deteriorating even with the privatisation.
Other alternative power sources including coal-to-power are yet to be fully harnessed contrary to the manifesto content. Although the federal government constituted a committee on Coal-to-Power early in July 2013 to carry out site mapping of coal deposits in Nigeria while admitting that the quantum of coal deposit in the country was large enough to provide electricity to the nation for the next 20-30 years, much is yet ot be heard on this.
Part of the transformation promises is Jonathan’s bid to construct more dams to build more hydro-power stations. Trying to initiate the process, Jonathan on May 2013 flagged off the construction of the 700mw Zungeru hydro dam in Niger state whose plan had lied fallow for about 30 years since 1982.
The dam construction which is to gulp N162.9 billion has a four-year completion period by Messrs Synohydro Corporation and China Nation Electrical Engineering Corporation Consortium in collaboration with local engineers.
While officials said equipment are being moved to site, including surveys and mappings, relocation and compensation issues for the affected communities being processed by the power ministry since February. But the biggest and most anticipated over 3,000mw Mambilla hydro-dam in Taraba state which the administration promised to flag-off is still fallow.
While President Jonathan in his Roadmap to Power promised tremendous power increment, Electricity generation report obtained from the Presidential Taskforce on Power in November 2013 showed that though the country’s peak demand level forecast was 12,800mw of electricity, energy generation capacity stood at about 3,559.46mw per hour (MWH/H), while actual electricity sent out into the national grid was 3,487.85mw/h.
However, statistics from the transmission national control centre in Osogbo, Osun state last weekend showed that generated capacity is still around 3,800mw.
Government’s target of additional 4,700mw drawn from the 10 NIPPs which it said would be completed in the first quarter of 2014 is still foot-dragging due to vandalism and poor gas supply to the gas fired plants. As at today, only 437mw Geregu and 500mw Omotosho NIPP has been commissioned with the other eight plants still being hampered by adequate gas supply.
Recently, Power Minster, Prof. Nebo has said electricity supply would improve more after the historic turnaround rehabilitation of Kainji/Jebba Generation company (Genco) which is still ongoing.
Are there hopes?
The continuous complaints on incessant supply, estimated billings, huge metering gap and sustained non-improved conditions in the power sector is eliciting more outcry from electricity consumers.
A survey done by an indigenous survey firm, NOI Polls on power situation for the first quarter said, ‘the perception of the Nigerian adult public in Quarter 1 of 2014 revealed that an average of 63percent (43 percent + 20 percent) of Nigerians have experienced no improvement in their power supply, with 43 percent who experienced a worsened state and 20 percent having no difference at all.
More findings revealed that an average of 63 percent (45 percent +18 percent) received less than 5 hours of continuous power supply daily, with the majority (45percent) receiving between 1-4 hours of continuous power daily and 18 percent receiving zero (0) hours of power supply.
While the situation has scarcely changed from what it was, the protracted spate of power generation loss has also triggered off a tariff increase in the Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) from June 2014.Statistics from the government electricity regulatory agency showed that 9061megawatts should have been on the nation's grid by 2014 baring any short-change in gas supply and operation of the 10 NIPPs.
Wrong projections had marred the MYTO 2 when it was designed in 2012 as the expected grid capacity was less than half realised as at May 2014. "The well-known fact today is that gross availability capacity from the grid as of 31st March review date is 4306mw,” NERC Chairman, Dr. Sam Amadi had said this week.
The huge imbalance resulted in a 52percent reduction in projected capacity, thereby letting off a tariff increase in Energy Cost by at N1 despite some favourable macroeconomic indicators.
As we progress into the third quarter and lap of this administration, government would have to visit the drawing board to put more things in place especially as it concerns actualising the 6,000mw generation capacity it has just set for December 2014, whilst improving electricity supply hours and metering consumers. Lest there will be no electorate converging for another Power Roadmap ballad for the 2015 polls.
s
of electricity distributed among the teeming 177 million population.
Examining the situation, many have expressed doubts over the attainment of a total transformation in the power sector. However, this is not to say the administration has not done credibly well in achieving record-breaking milestones in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).
President Jonathan inaugurated the Roadmap for Power Sector Reforms on 26th August, 2010 in Lagos where he reiterated his ‘power’ promises saying, “By God’s grace, by December 2012, Nigeria will not only celebrate one day of uninterrupted electricity supply, but we would celebrate one week, one month and so on of uninterrupted electricity supply.”
More so, he had at his numerous campaign tours to various states across the geopolitical zones promised a significantly improved power supply before the end of the 2011 election year through government’s construction of 10 National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) gas-fired plants.
Records show that a summary of President Jonathan’s manifesto on the power sector declared before the April 19, 2011 presidential elections reflected tremendous advancement in the sector within the shortest period.
The Roadmap Promise
Based on the 2010 Power Roadmap and privatisation plans, he promised to provide stable power supply by the year 2015 so that small and medium scale industries can thrive again; ensure that Nigerians do not use generators more than two times in a week; explore the coal deposits in Benue and Kogi states for improved power supply; construct more dams to build more hydro-power stations; reduce the importation of generators by at least 90percent in the ensuing four years; raise power generation to about 4,747megawatts by December 2011; and to end epileptic power supply in the country just as fuel queues at petrol stations were ended.
However as the last lap of the four year term grinds to a halt in about 12 months from now, Nigerians are raising more questions, seeking for myriads of answers as to whether the umpteen mouth-watering promises have been fulfilled or most of them were mere baits to catch the already weary masses into accepting the government at the polls.
Nation’s electricity status
First of the promise was to deliver stable, constant supply of electricity to Nigerians. Investigations however revealed that government kindled its effort to meet the pledge with a resultant increase in power capacity from the previous 3600mw. Power capacity rose to about 4,200mw reportedly produced from the various Generation companies (Gencos) till December, 2011 but was below the promise of 4,747mw earlier made.
Former Minster of Power, Prof. Barth Nnaji, in February 2012 said the nation’s power stood at an increasing capacity of 4,400megawatts, adding that power generation had increased by more than 40 percent since President Jonathan was elected in May, 2011.
However, the increase barely translated into sustainable constant electricity supply as many places in the country witnessed protracted blackouts arising from incessant collapses of the country’s grid system. The Kano, Yola and Jos Electricity Distribution companies (Discos) continued to groan over what they have described as poor grid allocation which invariably hinders the constant supply of electricity to their service areas.
While conceiving the power privatization process early in 2013, the then Power Minister, Prof. Nnaji resigned amidst controversies just as power situation immediately worsened with supply dropping to 3,224.3mw but later increased to about 3,443mw in the second half of the year.
Statistics obtained in January 2013 from the National Control Centre (NCC) of transmission in Osogbo revealed that there were 39 and 42 system failures between 2009 and 2010 respectively, 19 system collapses in 2011 and 24 of such cases in 2012.
However the Minister of Power, Prof. Chinedu Nebo in June 2013 said, over 15 collapses were recorded last year, bringing it to a total of more than 139 transmission system collapses experienced within five years. Major reasons ascribed to the cases were overloading of the electricity grid, vandalism, and weak transmission towers, obsolete power infrastructure and a sharp decline of human capacity.
Success came for the administration when it finally completed the unbundling of the PHCN and then privatized 15 of its power utilities, as envisaged in the road map to provide constant power supply. The privatization exercise by November 1st, 2013 saw to the handover of four electricity generation companies and 10 distribution companies to private investors while the transmission network was left in the hands of government.
To allay the fears of the public who feared the public transmission sector may not be a match for the anticipated private-sector driven electricity industry, government contracted Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) of Canada in 2012 to help transform the transmission company under its unbundled name, Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).
All these are to ensure that power generation steeply rises to over 4,000mw and considerably impacting on the nation’s constant and stable power supply, but records on generation capacity generation obtained from the Ministry of Power in December 2013, months after the handover showed that electricity dropped by about 954mw.
Although it once stood at a significant 4,517mw in December 2012, it had dropped to a fluctuating 3,563mw by December 2013 even as the ministry attributed the drop to vandalism and the shortage of gas supply.
Not deterred, some electricity stakeholders are optimistic that generation may rise and hopefully engender the promises of constant and stable supply in the now private-led power sector. In corroboration, records available on the site of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) show that there are 57 licensed generation companies who could produce a total of 26,093mw of on-grid electricity when operationally and efficiently put to use.
The 26,000mw generating plants comprise the seven privatised government generation assets, the yet-to-be privatized 10 National Integrated Power Projects (NIPPs), and two generating plants under the Bureau of Public Enterprise (BPE). Others are primarily the assets of various Independent Power Plants (IPPs).
On the provision of stable power supply by 2015 to boost small and medium scale industries, a major indicator on that is the Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) initiated by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in 2008. The reviewed MYTO 2 became effective in June 2012, but with an attendant increase in electricity bills. The last major review before 2015 sets in wich would be effective by Sunday 1st June, has also recorded an increase which does not truly encourage a thriving industrial economy.
More so, Government leveraging on the growth of small and medium enterprises had lowered the cost of fixed charges for ‘D2 Customers’ under the SME category in 2013. Data available from NERC revealed that prior to the reduction, the D2 customers’ fixed charges range between N86, 956 to N139, 466 depending on the Distribution Company, but to encourage the development of local industries, the Commission reduced the fixed charge for the group to 25percent.
Early in January, President Jonathan further issued a directive to the new owners of the privatised power assets investors to ensure visible and significant improvement in power supply in the country by June this year with a target of 14 hours electricity for consumers who were already getting 12hours supply while major cities including Abuja and Lagos were to have up to 22 to 23hours daily supply; this is yet to be the case with barely 3,800mw in the nation’s grid even as June draws nearer.
President Jonathan also in his bid to provide electricity for rural areas adopted the solar lighting technology when he flagged off the Operation Light-up Rural Nigeria (ORLN) in Durumi village of Abuja earlier in January 2014.
The Minister of Power, Prof. Chinedu Nebo had said the community centre which houses a solar-kiosk and other lighting installations would facilitate job creation/business growth adding that they will be replicated in most communities across the country, shortly. This is still on the rack as it is yet to be replicated in other states of the federation.
As the ultimatum of June 2014 for significant power improvement approaches, consumers are anxiously waiting to experience in in the face of a rise in electricity tariff. Prof. Nebo had attributed earlier hitches to constant supply of electricity to sabotage and teething problems in the newly privatised industries, but that is well over six months and such cases ought to have improved.
Another significant power promise was that the administration will reduce the importation of generators at least 90 percent in the next four years; and ensure that Nigerians do not use generators more than two times in a week. Analysts have continued to argue on this point as no legislation has been passed to ban generator importation.
The Minister of Power Prof. Chinedu Nebo while addressing pressmen in December 2013 had said he has no generator plant installed at his Ministers’ Hills residence and the Ministry of Power to show an example in transforming the power sector.
He had expressed hopes that shortly, consumers will resort to being satisfied with power supply thereby drastically cutting down the use of generator sets which according to research has many negative consequences on the health conditions and wellbeing of individuals.
An official in the Ministry of Power who spoke in confidence said President Jonathan may likely not issue any ban on generator importation but would strive to ensure that power supply is gradually consistent and stable which at the end will dissuade generator importers after a drastic fall in their market demands.
But recent Daily Trust checks revealed that the use of power generating plants and their importation is on the increase due to poor conventional electricity supply which is deteriorating even with the privatisation.
Other alternative power sources including coal-to-power are yet to be fully harnessed contrary to the manifesto content. Although the federal government constituted a committee on Coal-to-Power early in July 2013 to carry out site mapping of coal deposits in Nigeria while admitting that the quantum of coal deposit in the country was large enough to provide electricity to the nation for the next 20-30 years, much is yet ot be heard on this.
Part of the transformation promises is Jonathan’s bid to construct more dams to build more hydro-power stations. Trying to initiate the process, Jonathan on May 2013 flagged off the construction of the 700mw Zungeru hydro dam in Niger state whose plan had lied fallow for about 30 years since 1982.
The dam construction which is to gulp N162.9 billion has a four-year completion period by Messrs Synohydro Corporation and China Nation Electrical Engineering Corporation Consortium in collaboration with local engineers.
While officials said equipment are being moved to site, including surveys and mappings, relocation and compensation issues for the affected communities being processed by the power ministry since February. But the biggest and most anticipated over 3,000mw Mambilla hydro-dam in Taraba state which the administration promised to flag-off is still fallow.
While President Jonathan in his Roadmap to Power promised tremendous power increment, Electricity generation report obtained from the Presidential Taskforce on Power in November 2013 showed that though the country’s peak demand level forecast was 12,800mw of electricity, energy generation capacity stood at about 3,559.46mw per hour (MWH/H), while actual electricity sent out into the national grid was 3,487.85mw/h.
However, statistics from the transmission national control centre in Osogbo, Osun state last weekend showed that generated capacity is still around 3,800mw.
Government’s target of additional 4,700mw drawn from the 10 NIPPs which it said would be completed in the first quarter of 2014 is still foot-dragging due to vandalism and poor gas supply to the gas fired plants. As at today, only 437mw Geregu and 500mw Omotosho NIPP has been commissioned with the other eight plants still being hampered by adequate gas supply.
Recently, Power Minster, Prof. Nebo has said electricity supply would improve more after the historic turnaround rehabilitation of Kainji/Jebba Generation company (Genco) which is still ongoing.
Are there hopes?
The continuous complaints on incessant supply, estimated billings, huge metering gap and sustained non-improved conditions in the power sector is eliciting more outcry from electricity consumers.
A survey done by an indigenous survey firm, NOI Polls on power situation for the first quarter said, ‘the perception of the Nigerian adult public in Quarter 1 of 2014 revealed that an average of 63percent (43 percent + 20 percent) of Nigerians have experienced no improvement in their power supply, with 43 percent who experienced a worsened state and 20 percent having no difference at all.
More findings revealed that an average of 63 percent (45 percent +18 percent) received less than 5 hours of continuous power supply daily, with the majority (45percent) receiving between 1-4 hours of continuous power daily and 18 percent receiving zero (0) hours of power supply.
While the situation has scarcely changed from what it was, the protracted spate of power generation loss has also triggered off a tariff increase in the Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) from June 2014.Statistics from the government electricity regulatory agency showed that 9061megawatts should have been on the nation's grid by 2014 baring any short-change in gas supply and operation of the 10 NIPPs.
Wrong projections had marred the MYTO 2 when it was designed in 2012 as the expected grid capacity was less than half realised as at May 2014. "The well-known fact today is that gross availability capacity from the grid as of 31st March review date is 4306mw,” NERC Chairman, Dr. Sam Amadi had said this week.
The huge imbalance resulted in a 52percent reduction in projected capacity, thereby letting off a tariff increase in Energy Cost by at N1 despite some favourable macroeconomic indicators.
As we progress into the third quarter and lap of this administration, government would have to visit the drawing board to put more things in place especially as it concerns actualising the 6,000mw generation capacity it has just set for December 2014, whilst improving electricity supply hours and metering consumers. Lest there will be no electorate converging for another Power Roadmap ballad for the 2015 polls.
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